Lately, the headlines have been loud—“Home Prices Are Dropping!” “Market Cooling!” Sound familiar? If you’re starting to second-guess your homeownership dreams, take a breath. Let’s zoom out and get some perspective.

Yes, in some major metros, prices have dipped a bit. But before you let clickbait headlines rattle your real estate plans, here’s the truth: home values tend to go up over time. Almost always.

Remember the 2008 housing crash? Of course you do. But here’s the thing—it was a major outlier. A perfect storm of loose lending, low equity, and way too many homes on the market. Today’s housing landscape? It’s nothing like that.

So, what can you really expect? That’s where the Five-Year Rule comes in.

What Is the Five-Year Rule?

The Five-Year Rule is a simple, solid piece of real estate wisdom:
If you plan to stay in your home for at least five years, short-term price dips won’t hurt you much.

In fact, they usually won’t hurt you at all. Real estate values have a funny way of bouncing back—and then climbing even higher.

As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, puts it:

“There’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.”

It’s similar to the stock market—temporary drops don’t matter when you’re playing the long game.

What’s Really Happening in the Market?

Yes, some cities are cooling off a little. But the average decline? Around -2.9% since April 2024. That’s a far cry from a crash.

Even in those cooler markets, prices are still well above where they were five years ago. So if you bought before or around 2020? You’re likely sitting on significant gains.

And nationally? Home values have risen an incredible 55% over the past five years, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. That’s a big deal.

Every single state has seen an increase in home values over the last five years. Even those currently experiencing a slight dip are still ahead in the bigger picture.

The Takeaway: Don’t Let the Headlines Fool You

Homeownership is a marathon, not a sprint. If you’re planning to live in your home for five years or more, history is on your side.

So when the headlines start shouting, take a step back and ask yourself:
Where do I want to be in five years—and does owning a home help get me there?

Let’s Talk

Whether you’re buying, selling, or just starting to explore your options, I’m here to help you cut through the noise and make confident, informed decisions. Let’s connect and talk about what your next five years could look like.