With a Presidential election coming up, it’s normal to wonder how it might affect things – especially if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home. It’s easy to let the “what-ifs” take over and stir up a bit of anxiety. But before you hit pause on your plans, let’s break down what really happens in the housing market during an election year.

Here’s Some Good News

Presidential elections typically have a small, short-lived impact on the housing market. So, no need to panic. But let’s dive into some data to answer those questions you’ve probably been thinking about.

Home Sales

There’s usually a slight dip in home sales in the month leading up to the election – think October and November. Why? Some people prefer to wait it out before making any big decisions. But the good news is this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back and even rise the following year.

Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the next year. This trend has held strong since the early 90s.

Home Prices

Wondering if home prices drop during an election year? The short answer is no. As Ryan Lundquist, a well-known housing analyst, points out, an election year doesn’t typically change the price trend already happening in the market. In fact, after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices went up the following year.

The exception? The 2008 election, which was during the housing market crash – a unique situation. Today’s market is more resilient, and while prices might level off, they’re not expected to take a nosedive.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are another big factor to keep in mind. Looking at the past 11 Presidential elections, mortgage rates dropped from July to November in 8 of those years. And guess what? We’re already seeing that happen in 2024, with many experts predicting rates will continue to dip slightly through the rest of the year. Lower rates mean more purchasing power if you’re planning to buy soon.

So, What’s The Takeaway?

Presidential elections may cause a few ripples in the housing market, but they’re usually minor. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, puts it: “Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

Bottom line

Don’t let election year jitters derail your plans. The housing market remains strong and resilient, so if you’re ready to make a move, you don’t have to wait. Let’s chat about how I can help you navigate this market!